7:43 pm | Washington DC

It was a cold day here in the nation's capitol, and not much happened anywhere else, at least in the rare and crazed world of primary politics. In fact, the only development of note is Kerry's continued rise in the polls, with the exception of South Carolina, where John Edward's down-home accent and award-winning collection of Gomer Pyle memorabilia are putting him just over the edge. And now, some numbers:

South Carolina (CBS News)

Edwards: 30%
Kerry: 18%
Sharpton: 13%
Clark: 11%
Dean: 10%

Arizona (AMG)

Kerry: 24%
Clark: 21%
Edwards: 15%
Dean: 10%

Oklahoma (AMG)

Kerry: 17%
Clark: 23%
Edwards: 18%
Lieberman: 10%
Dean: 8%

Missouri (MSNBC / Zogby)

Kerry: 46%
Edwards: 13%
Dean: 8%

Delaware (AMG)

Kerry: 27%
Lieberman: 16%
Dean: 14%

Man, these things are all over the place. Our man Dean has been a lot of things in the last few weeks, but BEHIND AL SHARPTON has never been one of them. Not to mention trailing Lieberman in two races. Wasn't Howard Dean the front-runner two weeks ago? I thought I remembered seeing him on all the magazine covers. Does no one west of Virginia read 'The National Journal'?

Someone has to die this Tuesday. That's all there is to it. We could not even hazard a guess, at this point.

"Laugh hard, it's a long way to the bank." (Modest Mouse)

6:15 pm | Washington DC

It seems that even the merest mention of Ralph Nader's name still has the power to raise hackles all around. We were surprised to receive several vehement emails here at the BWA Campaign Blog National Affairs Desk in Washington. The leftwardly-leaning people of this great nation are hardly of one mind when it comes to Mr. Nader and his ill-fated candidacy in the 2000 presidential elections.

Given the rancor this topic seems to engender, we shall forbear to remark, and refrain from posting some of the emails in question. Instead, we will present a heartening poll on the eventual general election, sure to bring together the bickering factions of the great, thick-headed political left.

Hypothetical General Election Race (Rasmussen poll)

Kerry: 45%
Bush: 44%

Yes, the pike-jawed hero of the Democratic middle-ground is a point above King Shrub. Of course, nothing matters much ten months out, but it's nice to see. There are also some numbers out on national support among Democratic voters:

National Democrats (Rasmussen poll)

Kerry: 36%
Dean: 17%
Edwards: 16%
Clark: 9%
Lieberman: 7%
Sharpton: 3%
Kucinich: 0%
Not Sure: 12%

Carry on, Mr. Kucinich.

That's about enough out of us, we think. It was a long, strange trip this week into the stomach of the monster. We will return on Monday, anxiously awaiting the results of Tuesday's seven primary elections across the mighty, fractious land. Say a prayer for Howard Dean, if you are so inclined. It will be a long weekend.

10:55 am | Washington DC

It's a bright and exciting day here at the BWA Campaign Blog. First of all, we hope you enjoy our "fresh new look," by which we mean that collection of little blue links off to the right. These are all excellent websites. Start your own inward-looking, pointless campaign blog.

Second of all, we were planning to discuss the debate last night, but we missed most of it, and no one seemed to care very much anyway. Also, we had thought today would be a good day to present some poll numbers for the upcoming avalanche of western and southern primaries, but Dean's numbers are so bad we lost heart.

However, this morning's mailbag is full of impassioned argument in all directions, so we give the platform over to the thoughts and rants of our readers.

Jonathan Roth writes us from right here in Washington, declaring himself both a pragmatic Democrat and a Nader man, as if such a thing can exist:

As a former "Nader nerd," I take exception to Jenny's comments from today [see yesterday's blog. -Ed.]. Look, the "Pragmatic Democrats" and the "Nader Democrats" need to start working together, or the Republicans are going to run this country forever. And continuing to blame Nader for Bush isn't going to help matters. It is *never* wrong to vote on principle.

Having said that, I'm voting for whoever the hell the Democrats nominate, even if it's Kerry. Because, damn, that Bush guy is scary.

Also aligning himself in the camp of the pragmatists is alert reader Joe Janda, student, scientist and resident of fabled Long Island:

I would be right there with you, all for Dean, yet I must continue to declare myself squarely in the Pragmatic Democrat camp, per the blog vocab of the day.

If Dean can pull himself out of this flailing mess, however, and make the proper moves to stay in the race, I might just give him my vote in NY on March 2. Can he beat Bush? I think if he is nominated then the party should organize and coalesce around him so that he has the resources, coaching, and new-found spine of the democratic party behind him. I believe the massed and organized smarts of the dems can win over the dirty tricks of the Bush dynasty campaign. And whoever is nominated should quietly hire Bill Clinton as a shadow campaign manager.

As hardened political obsevers with no sense of romance or altruism, we feel that this is unlikely, although, like many, we would dearly love to see Bubba calling the shots again.

But alert reader and midwesterner Kevin Fanning took umbrage at the weak-heartedness he perceived in yesterday's arguments:

It is likely that my memory needs to be jogged, but I don't remember it being Nader's fault that George W. won the election. I remember it being Al Gore's fault. Am I wrong in thinking that if Gore had won his home state, then Flordia wouldn't have mattered at all? Perhaps, since since they agree with Ms Miller, BWA could unpack the statement a bit, for my benefit.

As far as that goes, it has been our opinion for the last three years that Gore was incapable of running a better campaign than he did, but Ralph Nader WAS capable of withdrawing at the last minute, expressing his disappointment with the Democratic platform but still admitting that four years of a Gore administration would be far better for the country (and the rest of the world) than the jackbooted thuggery of George W. Bush and his coterie of hatchet-men, throwing his support to Al Gore, advancing the agenda of the Green Party in the political mainstream, and making himself a hero to the majority of Democratic voters, rather than a villain.

However, we have had this argument many times with many people whose opinions we respect greatly, and we have learned that the "Nader argument" is a treacherous one, doomed to end in shouting and rudely-thrown cutlery.

Mr. Fanning also weighed in with some opinions on the increasingly-hapless Joe Lieberman:

But you know what, BWA, compromise is an important thing, and in listening to the debate last night, I had a though. What scares me about John Kerry is that if he gets the nomination, he'll pick some hapless yet strategic senator to be his running mate. This goes back to Gore/Lieberman. I hated Lieberman. So does pretty much everyone else, as current polls indicate. And I don't trust Kerry to not make the same mistake.

But if ousting Bush at any cost is what this is all about, and it probably is, then hear this: if John Kerry wins the nomination, I will gladly vote for him, provided he picks John Edwards as his running mate, because I think they would be well-nigh unstoppable together, and I would love to see Bush get whupped.

At least everyone agrees on that much. Have heart, John Kerry, you long-jawed New England yachtsman.

Finally, to wrap up this morning's long-winded but generally fun post, we received something of a beating from New York reader Amanda Cardone, who took offense to yesterday's inclusion of a Robert Bly quote. Several of her neatly-itemized complaints are listed below:

2) To get specific: What is the quote about? Forgive me for my ignorance here, but I don't get it. Why should men go into sea without an oar, rudder, or fear? Point taken that Dean shouldn't back down yet -- but a better sense of direction may have helped him before and still might in the future. Moreover, the focus on the lack of fear in the quote makes me uncomfortable. I'd say that Bush is following Bly's advice perfectly -- and look where we are!

3) Personally: I'm mostly just sad that my favorite campaign blog used what I feel is an unhelpful quote by a pseudo-intellectual that I don't respect to encourage my favorite candidate to suck it up and not give up yet.

Point taken, Ms. Cardone. If the truth be known, we are not particular fans of Mr. Bly and his weird brand of hyper-masculine nonsense, we simply liked the sound of the quote. Upon reflection it does not adequately express our elegantly-nuanced beliefs, and we regret including it.

We are uncertain what we have learned here today, other than that our readers are a wise and fiesty group, and are not overfond of either the President or Robert Bly.

4:05 am | Washington DC

Today is a dark day for the great churning electorate. The Dean campaign is barking along like it broke both its legs, and the Kerry coverage in all the respectable news media has the suspicious iron after-taste of a done deal.

For the first time since last August, we here at the BWA Campaign Blog are disappointed in Howard Dean. Not because he lost a few races, and not because he blew all his money, and not because he got rid of Joe Trippi, his clever and beloved campaign manager, and not because he lost his marbles a little when he came in third in Iowa and started making unsettling noises on live national television, but because he's starting to knuckle. Yes. Our man is freaking out.

Partly, we understand his reaction. The media coverage of this man has been overwhelming. Howard Dean IS the story, day in and day out. Dean is on top and the headlines read "Awesome Dean Totally on Top!"; Kerry is on top and the headlines read "Christ! Dean Not on Top at All!". So we understand the pressure.

But we are behind the governor from Vermont precisely because he is a fighter. The spectacle of the red-faced, hollering hero of the young Democrats quaking in the grip of knee-weakening fear disheartens us in a way that a few mistakes and general episodes of weirdness never could.

Get a hold of yourself, Doc. It's only January.

"Man brings to sea three things that are of no worth: a rudder, an oar and the fear of going down." (Robert Bly)

12:52 am | Washington DC

Celebrity blogger (and Dean supporter) Jenny Miller just weighed in on today's topic:

Must disagree with your man Kevin. What did voting principles give us? George W., Nader nerds. The lesser of two evils does matter, unless you think the blood on this administrations' hands is inconsequential.

We are forced to agree. Politics is the art of compromise. When we vote (or blog) we are picking the person who can advance our favorite agenda the furthest, not the person we think will save the world.

Although that would be nice.

12:08 am | Washington DC

We received an email here at the BWA Campaign Log from alert reader, and heartland resident, Kevin Fanning, whose thoughts on the Kerry resurgence cast some doubt on our thesis (see earlier post from today):

Personally, alls I know is I'm not voting for Kerry. He's almost as much a part of the problem as Bush. I want to vote for a Democrat who earns my vote. No more of this lesser-of-two-evils stuff. Where has that gotten us. Nowheresville.

Hard-hearted words from the left-leaning electorate. We still think our theory is sound, however, although we are open to the possibility that we are wrong.

11:30 am | Washington DC

Today's topic is a serious one, dear muddle-headed readers, as we lay aside the always-entertaining numbers game (and our usual Hunter Thompson-esque exhortations to Howard Dean) to discuss the coming storm.

Specifically, our topic is 'The Pragmatic Democrat,' a term coined by alert reader Constance Chang. Conventional wisdom (which is always wrong, or nearly so), holds that individual voters do not make "strategic" choices. That is to say, if they like Howard Dean (or whoever), they're not going to vote for John Kerry (or whoever) just because they think he'll beat Bush in November.

This seems to be exactly what we are experiencing in the 2004 primary season, however.

Sharp-witted reader (and a New York coordinator for the Kucinich campaign) Constance Chang shares her thoughts on this phenomenon:

This primary season, it's all about a strange, emerging, heretofore unseen figure: the Pragmatic Democrat. You may remember its evolutionary predecessor, the Nader Democrat. I do. Many were my friends. I was nearly one myself. (In essence, I am one still, the sole sucker on the Kucinich campaign, but whatever.) At any rate, this creature is only in its nascency, an unformed, embryonic being, waving its tiny, translucent hands towards the light. But the Pragmatic Democrat has strength in numbers and these little guys are growing fast and more resolute by the minute.

Look, we're all voting for Democrats, no matter who they prop up there. I love Dennis Kucinich, as you all know, but the people don't want his kind of integrity and vision. Fine. Bring it. I'll vote for Kerry or Clark or Dean or freaky Ken-doll. Watch me.

Exit polling from New Hampshire seems to bear out this theory. Comparing the top two candidates (Kerry and Dean), shows Kerry with a "I will break you" margin of victory -- a hearty 39% to Dean's anemic 26%. But look at the numbers and see where Dean DID beat Kerry:

People who cast their vote for a candidate who "Stands up for what he believes in":

Dean 47%
Kerry: 21%

Compare that last statistic to the numbers on people who voted for a candidate who "Can defeat George Bush":

Kerry: 62%
Dean: 10%

(Source: Washington Post NEP poll)

This is not to disaparage Kerry, who is a handsome man, with a wealthy wife, a set of fairly sound domestic and foreign policy stances, and a fascinating jawline. Nor is this simply an attempt to wield the vast influence of the BWA Campaign Blog to pump up the somewhat-flagging Dean campaign. Rather, these numbers tell us, the astute and clear-eyed, that primary voters are not picking the candidate they have the most faith in, necessarily, but the candidate they have the most faith in to defeat the Horned King.

We are unsure if this worries or relieves us, here in the darkness of late January. We await the thoughts of our readers.

2:29 pm | Washington DC

It has been a long, draining 25 hours, and the editorial staff of the BWA Campaign Blog intends to depart shortly, to seek solace in the pitiless embrace of alcohol. We have all kinds of clever and insightful things to post, including the official "state of the primary race" analysis, the latest numbers in the upcoming southern and western states, and some thoughts on why Dean spent all his money, but it will have to wait until tomorrow.

We leave you with a column we enjoyed from USA Today's Walter Shapiro. Keep hope alive.

10:05 am | Manchester

Just got an email from BWA reader and occasional correspondent Meredith Bragg, recovering from two weeks of deprivation in New Hampshire:

The forecasted snow, like the late Dean surge, has yet to materialize -- but that didn't stop a large number of the chattering class from hopping on early flights to beat the weather. An eerie quiet has invaded the Courtyard Marriott as the gaggle of journalists have taken the campaigns lead and fled for higher ground.

It has been said by wiser men than me but bears repeating: the rush to South Carolina is the old campaign model and no longer weighs as heavily on campaign manager's minds. The current wisdom is that the big ticket to the nomination runs through Missouri. Once Rep. Gephardt's sputtering performance in Iowa initiated his withdrawal the race for the Show-Me-State's 74 delegates began. South Carolina only has 45. And with Al Sharpton skipping New Hampshire to woo the large African American population in the state, don't be surprised if Dean and Kerry give little more than an obligatory flyby to the region, leaving Edwards and Clark to fight it out for the number 3 spot.

The other big story of the day is the count of "superdelegates," which are various party leaders and bigshots who can vote for whomever they choose.

8:54 am | Washington DC

It is the morning after New Hampshire, and the Democratic primary candidates have scattered to the mean winds, taking with them all hope. We spent far more time than we would have liked to watching CNN last night, here at the BWA Campaign Blog, as we were trapped in room 596 at the Pennsylvania Avenue Marriott, kept from our home by a late night of work and the ice-covered streets of northwest Washington.

Fleeing the endless grinning footage of John Edwards, we returned to our cubicle at work in the eerie dead of night. Yes! Back to the scene of the accident, where we forced ourselves to leave the TV off, and instead listened to Elton John, which only made matters worse.

But the day dawned more brightly, our spirit, though bruised, cheered somewhat by this email from BWA reader and contributor Jim Terp:

What’s with the gloom and doom BWA! Unlike 2000 when Al Gore was essentially anointed by Democratic party hacks, this time around we have a Battle Royale, a survival of the fittest struggle between 9 candidates. Witness the positives: record voter turnout in Iowa and New Hampshire; a State of the Union speech in which Bush circled the wagons pandering publicly to his narrow base (something he did mostly in private in 2000); and more importantly we have an energized base that is ready for a good fight. As far as Karl Rove goes, let him bring his blood money and Bush’s record against whoever wins the Democratic Primary. This is our time, my friend. Win or lose Dean, Clark, and the other 7 candidates have made our party stronger for this primary season run. Let’s not lose sight of the uber objective!

Well, if a Clark supporter can sound such an upbeat note this morning, we suppose it would be ungrateful of us to keep complaining. On to South Carolina.

9:04 pm | Washington DC

Well, the bastards have done us in again. The polls are closed in New Hampshire, and the snow is red with blood.

New Hampshire Primary (early results)

Kerry: 39%
Dean: 24%
Edwards: 13%
Clark: 12%
Lieberman: 9%

These numbers are in from CNN, The Washington Post, and pretty much everywhere else. Kerry's up by 10 points, it seems, and you can almost see the moonlight reflecting off his suit. He wears expensive suits. Dean's on the air right now, looking somewhat haggard, trying not to say anything harsh to Larry King, and stifling that trembling wolf cry that has stalked his footsteps for the last 6 days. General Clark may or may not have learned some lessons about the Presidency of the United States as an entry-level political job. Lieberman's name is written in foot-high letters of fire on the Nashua courthouse, and we may see him standing bravely tomorrow morning, somewhere in the snow, dwarfed by a wooden lectern and the grim specter of defeat.

It was a hard night in New Hampshire, easily-frightened readers. Some of our half-hearted heroes will not live to see the dawn. But it's better this way. Better that they should go home, tired and ashen, to live in obscurity and defeat, than to face the ruinous storm of hate and violence that Karl Rove has in store for them in October.

Well, we'll shake this one off too. Goodnight from Washington.

8:23 pm | Washington DC

Some numbers are coming out of New Hampshire, and things are looking good for Dean. He's behind Kerry in most polls, but not by much. Maybe the official BWA Campaign Blog prognostication of 4 points behind will look impressive, rather than depressing, tomorrow morning. Hell, maybe he'll win.

Some early numbers:

Drudge Report

Kerry: 34%
Dean: 31%
Edwards: 12%
Clark: 9%

LA Times

Dean: 34%
Kerry: 33%

ABC News

Kerry: 37%
Dean: 31%

Wait, who do we think is reading this blog at 8:30 at night? We are hardly reading it ourselves.

7:18 pm | Washington DC

We could use a little more excitement this evening, as we watch the fairly ho-hum primary coverage on CNN. No one has sent us emails, no one has alerted us to any exit polling data, no one has even made any good cracks about Dean being a wack-job. Apparently we are standing a lonely watch back here in Washington.

Send us something, alert readers. Even Kucinich supporters are welcome.

12:30 pm | Washington DC

It's another horrible slushy day in Washington, and the latest numbers from New Hampshire are doing nothing to lift our spirits:

New Hampshire numbers (Zogby poll)

Kerry: 37%
Dean: 24%
Edwards: 12%
Clark: 9%
Lieberman: 9%
Kucinich: 3%

Dean seems to have actually lost ground since yesterday. I wonder what happened? Did he start yelling again?

Well, the day is early, yet. We will stand by our doomed predictions until the polls close, and the wounded howl of the the governor of Vermont echoes over the long gray fields. Stand fast, friends. Be bold, and mighty forces will come to your aid.

5:06 pm | Washington DC

It's a another exciting in evening in national politics. At least one major poll (see our earlier post) has Dean and Kerry neck and neck, although some others have Kerry well out in front. The CNN/Gallup numbers have Kerry at 36% to Dean's 25%. Not quite as exciting.

Being closet true-believers in the governor of Vermont, we would prefer to go with the Zogby poll, but we are heartened by Gallup's numbers in a hypothetical national match-up between Kerry and President George W. Bush, which have Kerry leading Bush at 49 to 46.

So the question is whether we want to see the back of the Bush Administration better than we want the ranting, redfaced Howard Dean to win the nomination. Hmmm. Can we get back to you tomorrow night?

Speaking of which, we have faith, here at the BWA Campaign Blog. Mountains of it. We're calling a victory for Kerry, but only just barely. We'll put him less than 4 points ahead, a technical victory that will dent his newfound aura of inevitability. Granite State voters love to trip up a front-runner. (We'll refrain from calling an embarassing beat-down for the oft-befuddled General Clark, because we are kind-hearted).

Besides, it's only New Hampshire, you know? Do you recall the off-party candidate who took New Hampshire the last time around? It was John McCain, who, regretfully, has not been the Republican sitting in the White House for the last four years, making policy up as he goes along and sending his prize war-hounds out to subdue the frontiers. And four years before that it was Pat Buchanan, the Butcher of Boca Raton. So, really, those people are kind of insane.

12:46 pm | Washington DC

We're snowed under here in the federal city. Good thing the boys in New Hampshire are made of sterner stuff. Today's numbers are looking good. The latest tracking polls have Dean closing to within 3 points of Kerry:

New Hampshire numbers (Zogby poll)

Kerry: 31%
Dean: 28%
Clark: 13%
Edwards: 12%
Lieberman: 9%

It's almost like a race again. Stay tuned for more updates down the closing stretch.

5:08 pm | Washington DC

It's a slow news day, unless I've missed something. Kerry's numbers continue to rise. Yesterday's AMG tracking poll in New Hampshire has him at 38%, with Dean, Edwards and Clark all trailing at around 16. Tuesday night may be only a distant fever-dream, but come on. 24 points out of first place with only two days to go? Man, let's just head for South Carolina and be done with the whole sorry business.

Maybe South Carolina will be where everything turns around. Edwards may have the accent, and Sharpton may have the brimstone, but Dean's got the crazy in him, and even though they may not cotton too strong to that up north, the southland has got nothing against a raving madman, provided he dresses neatly and keeps his wits about him. There's hope for the Dean campaign yet.

Well, I've got nothing today. I'll leave you with a transcript of Howard Dean's comments on John Kerry's culpability for the deaths of 500 American servicemembers in the streets of Baghdad (CNN Inside Politics, Friday 1/23):

WOODRUFF: Governor, another thing. Last night in the debate you tied the votes of your opponents, John Kerry, John Edwards, Joe Lieberman, to the deaths of 500 U.S. servicemen in Iraq and thousands of service people wounded in Iraq. Are you saying that they bear some of the responsibility for those casualties?

DEAN: Sure, sure. If you vote to send people to war, you bear responsibility for the casualties.

WOODRUFF: That's a pretty heavy thing to lay on them, isn't it?

DEAN: I think it's a pretty heavy thing to vote to go to war. It's the most awesome and difficult decision that any chief executive ever has. If I become president, I'll have to make that decision. It's a very difficult decision.

I've had to make that kind of decision before on a patient-by- patient basis, and it's not easy. If you vote to go to war, or if you're the president and you send people to war, you have a responsibility for the deaths of the people that you've sent. And I think that ways heavily on everybody who ever sent anybody to war.

Tough talk from the doc. Remember the war? Remember? Everyone cared about it five months ago? Ah, what the hell..

5:51 pm | Washington DC

More upbeat remarks from alert reader Joe Janda, up north on frosty Long Island:

I think your man might do well; Al Sharpton's dig at him during the debate, and Dean's laughter, did much to diffuse the raving madman image, do you think? Also, did you see the interview with he and his wife? I like his efforts to tone down. But I wish he would say the word 'warts' less.

He looked good today on CNN too, we thought. Jovial, robust, keeping his insanity in check. Also, he told Judy Woodruff that Kerry, Edwards, and Gephardt were responsible for the deaths of those American soldiers in Iraq. He's a live wire, that one. If he makes it past the summer he's gonna boot the Incredible Smirking President right in the caboose. And if not, maybe President Edwards will make him our ambassador to the United Nations.

Either way, we're off the air until Monday. Unless something interesting happens over the weekend, and we feel compelled to weigh in. Keep on keepin' on, young electorate.

3:35 pm | Washington DC

We think our man Dean is still keeping it together. So he hollered a little, and sounded deranged. We could do a lot worse. You know, like we are doing RIGHT NOW. Also, we appreciated his appearance on the Late Show:

Top Ten Ways I, Howard Dean, Can Turn Things Around

10. "Switch to decaf"
9. "Unveil new slogan: 'Vote for Dean and get one dollar off you next purchase at Blimpie'"
8. "Marry Rachel on final episode of 'Friends'"
7. "Don't change a thing -- it's going great"
6. "Show a little more skin"
5. "Go on 'American Idol' and give 'em a taste of these pipes"
4. "Start working out and speaking with Austrian accent"
3. "I can't give specifics yet, but it involves Ted Danson"
2. "Fire the staffer who suggested we do this lousy Top Ten list instead of actually campaigning"
1. "Oh, I don't know -- maybe fewer crazy, redfaced rants"

Aside from that, it's been a quiet day. Tuesday night is the New Hampshire primary, an event that, historically, has been a far greater predictor of the eventual nominee than the arcane, dour Iowa caucuses. Let's hope Dr. Dean pulls through. If not, we will start casting about for the next candidate in line. Or we will just wait until South Carolina, when our good friend the Right-Honorable Reverend Sharpton is *bound* to cause some trouble.

10:31 pm | Washington DC

We missed most of last night's debate, unfortunately, as we were urgently called away to a bar. We feel certain that the candidates would have understood. It doesn't seem to have been the sort of event that moved many hearts one way or the other. Alert reader Christian Scaniello of Washington checked in with his thoughts:

Did you watch the debate tonight? I feel like I'm just drifting aimlessly from candidate to candidate, with no real motivation to linger anywhere for any meaningful amount of time. Who impresses me the most? I'll be honest, it's Al Sharpton! At least he's consistent!

We also enjoyed this email from our old friend Joe Janda, a New York resident apparently leaning toward no one in particular:

So who do I stand behind? Who can 'fight'? Dean seemed energized and angry, Kerry and Clark both claim to be able to stand toe to toe with W because they were soldiers, Edwards could maybe smile him to submission, but what I want to see is smarts. I want to see a politician who can play the game. It's nice to agree with one's policies but I will sacrifice that for someone who can take a hit, hit back, and come out stronger.

In other news, those who enjoyed yesterday's back-and-forth with alert reader Jim Terp on the importance of the coming election may want to check out David Broder's column from Thursday's Washington Post on that very issue.

And, while we are no great fans of Michael Moore, we enjoyed his open letter to Dean supporters. Moore does not appear to be a Dean man himself, so the "keep up the good fight" rallying cry is all the more appreciated.

3:29 pm | Washington DC

Just got an email from Jim Terp, Clark supporter. Apparently the editorial tone of recent BWA Campaign Blog posts has gotten the big guy all fired up:

Thanks for the post. However, I actually posed my question in good faith. What makes Dean so appealing? And why should he get my vote? The answer isn't self-evident to me, 82% of Iowa Democrats, and I suspect close to 80% of New Hampshire primary voters. I'm giving you the opportunity to persuade me. That's what democratic elections are all about--providing serious answers to serious questions.

Because ultimately, I believe our choices can have serious consequences. (Note the last three + years of the Bush administration--9/11/2001 2,000 + dead ; 500 + dead in Iraq; however many new uninsured families; a $1,500 decline in the median family income after a $7,000 + gain during the Clinton years). You may think that this election is a joke. Personally, I think there's something very important at stake in the 2004 election and I'm not afraid and don't find it beneath me to engage others in a discussion over the topic. I would much rather vote for Kerry, Clark, Edwards, or even Dean in 2004 than to see another 4 years of a Bush administration. Perhaps you feel differently.

Actually, we do not feel differently at all. Our official editorial stance is not that Dean is Great White Hope, but that, for months and months, he was the only one of the bunch with the merest specter of a fighting spirit. Our current President, we believe, is a dangerous man, surrounded by other dangerous men. He is not dangerous because he is stupid, he is dangerous because he believes in a frightening version of the world. He is dangerous because he believes in policies that place the profits of corporate entities above the health and welfare and continued ability of ordinary people to draw breath. He is dangerous because he doesn't care.

Test this theory. Go back and find that clip of him standing in that flight suit on the deck of the aircraft carrier, behind the banner proclaiming "Mission Accomplished." Watch his face when he talks about the war in Iraq. Watch his face when he talks about the bombs we dropped and the buildings we destroyed. He's not laughing, exactly, but he's smirking. You may think the war in Iraq was a necessary evil, or even an unimpeachable good, but no one in charge of the most powerful destructive force in the history of the world should ever think the death of innocent people is something to smile about. Those bombs had all our names on them, and even if you do think it was the right thing to do, it's still not funny, and it will never be funny.

Well, we have gotten off track, and, clearly, up on a high horse. Howard Dean was the best chance the Democrats had to get in the game and bloody Karl Rove's nose a little. If John Kerry can do any better then we will cheer him all the way down the line. But, until Dean goes even *more* insane out there (a distinct possibility), we will dance with the lady what brung us.

That's enough out of us today. The BWA Campaign blog will check in tomorrow with thoughts on the debate, some snarky remarks, and, possibly, some insightful comments from our various contributors. Drop us a line.

1:40 pm | Washington DC

Big week for political bloggers. State of the Re-election Campaign Address on Tuesday, Roe v. Wade anniversary today, and the boys are all gearing up for the Democratic debate tonight in New Hampshire. We are beside ourselves over here.

Getting back to cold, hard reality, we present some of the latest New Hampshire tracking polls:

CNN / USA Today / Gallup

Kerry: 30%
Dean: 25%
Clark: 18%
Edwards: 11%
Lieberman: 8%
Kucinich: 4%
Undecided: 4%

Boston Globe

Kerry: 31%
Dean: 21%
Clark: 16%
Edwards: 11%
Lieberman: 4%
Undecided: 16%

Kucinich actually registered on the CNN/Gallup poll. Good for him. Some kind-hearted words for the BWA Campaign Blog from Kucinich supporter Constance Chang of Ohio:

You helped DJK win his one percent in Iowa, I'm sure. I appreciate the love, which was very both incisive and gentle, kind of like a Mother Jones article.

Yes, Virginia, there really are Kucinich supporters. Wonder where Sharpton is?

12:18 pm | Washington DC

It's a rough week for our man Dean out in the trenches. Kerry's like a man on fire. What happened? The one consolation is that many of the official smart people who get paid *scads* of money to shoot off their mouths about these things could not have been more wrong about Kerry.

However, although we here at the BWA Campaign Blog suffer from a closet case of true-believerism, we strive to maintain a sense of fair and balanced coverage. Therefore, please enjoy the following remarks from our friend (and Clark campaign volunteer) Jim Terp on the rapidly dwindling Dean phenomenon:

What is it about the candidate that makes him look so appealing? His economic platform seem like a recipe for disaster for middle class families and the poor; His inexperience in foreign policy makes him an easy target for the Bushies; and his Napoleon complex make him ripe for parody. Clearly I'm overlooking something.

Another alert reader, Jon Roth from right here in Washington, wrote us this morning to offer some "words of cheer" to counter what he felt were our recent, glum-hearted posts:

Yes, the press is jumping all over Dean right now, but they also pegged Kerry as DOA before Iowa, so what do they know? Also, I personally think they're making a mountain out of a molehill right now (that is, Dean's speech from Monday night) and the story is not going to last.

Keep sending in those emails, kids!

2:42 pm | Washington DC

We are feeling glum today, as the fallout from Iowa settles in. It's not so much that the results were so bizarre (they were), but that now the "perception" game has changed so dramatically. Dean still has the money and the organization and the supporters, but the wolves smell blood on the snow. It will be a dark winter.

The circus has come to New Hampshire, deep in the heart of Bush Country. Not only are Kerry and Edwards riding high over their Iowa showing, but the ominous specter of General Clark looms large. He's been running around for three weeks, personally cornering every Democratic primary voter and making each one polish his medals. Liberman's there too, but rumor has it that he has fallen into a deep sleep, from which he will never awake.

The candidate we shall not see again is the faded and weary Dick Gephardt. He fought long and he fought hard, and now he has laid down his spear and returned to Missouri to write a huge book. We are not fans of Gephardt here at BWA, but we honor his allegiance to the working class. He fought many battles long before we were old enough to write our names, and he gave a heartfelt goodbye speech. He stood up, failed to hold back his tears, called his family "his life" and exited the scene with grace. God grant Howard Dean the grace to do the same, should he falter and fail in the New Hampshire snow.

And so Bears Will Attack marks the passing of an old-school Labor Democrat. We wish you well, old man. May your book tours be well-attended and your future appointements be prestigious. Maybe you'll go on a road-trip with Al Gore.

2:30 pm | Nashua

Our New Hampshire correspondent Jim Terp checked in after four days of campaign work for Clark:

Have just returned from a great 4 day trip in NH. Spent much of Saturday and Sunday "canvassing" neighborhoods in Nashua and Pembroke to garner support for General Wesley Clark. Had some great conversations with locals many of which appear to be undecided at this point. It really seems like the New Hampshire vote will come right down to election day. Wouldn't be too surprised if Clark, Kerry, or Dean finished number one. Edwards could also make a strong late run. Anecdotes from the field: one lady that I spoke to said she would support any of the candidates except for Dean. Another said she initially planned to support Dean, but was turned off by his pre-election comments regarding the Iowa caucus.

Jim had lots more to say about General Clark, but you know how these true believers are. We'll skip ahead to the part where he bashes the President:

Also, spent Saturday night in downtown Manchester doing "visibility" (i.e. holding Clark for President signs) in the center city. Interesting contrast between the people sitting in restaurants, who gave the thumbs up as we walked by, and the folks who were attending an amateur hockey game at the Large Corporate Telecommunications Arena -- many of these folks walked briskly by, quite a few told the Clark, Lieberman, and Edwards volunteers to fuck off. And a few felt obliged to flip the finger. Lesson learned: never underestimate the intelligence of Bush's voting base. Actually, from just walking around town and talking to locals it's pretty clear that we were in Bush country. It's ironic that so much weight is being placed on this particular primary, given that during the general election it's very unlikely that a Democrat will be able to win in the state. Still, a great experience.

The BWA Campaign Blog apologizes to any readers who may have experienced discomfort at the harsh words and images in Jim's narrative, but the people need to know what the people need to know.

1:08 pm | Washington DC

Howard Dean appears to be suffering some sort of a meltdown.

First he delivered that wild-eyed speech after his abominable showing in the Iowa caucuses, and apparently today he broke out into the Star Spangled Banner in the midst of a routine campaign speech. Phrases appearing in the respectable press include "out-of-control," "crazed," and "weasel on speed."

But here at the BWA Campaign Blog we are not yet troubled. Our candidate is, seemingly, insane. A maddened, savage Northerner railing against dark forces and shaking his fist at nothing. We could do a lot worse.

Besides, Gephardt won Iowa in 1988, and look how many times he's been President

9:13 pm | Washington DC

If this is a 2004 campaign blog, you might ask, why was it not updated on the most important day of the campaign, the day after the Iowa caucuses? To be honest, dear readers, we were sad.

As you know, Kerry, that smiling, walking resume in an expensive suit, royally KICKED THE ASS of our candidate, Howard Dean. Dean came in third, behind Edwards. Edwards? What happened? What went wrong?

We have not lost hope. Iowa, in the grand scheme, means very little. New Hampshire is another day. Still, it dampened our spirit.

There is a ton of stuff to post, including several dispatches from Iowa, and our new correspondent Jim Terp, who is volunteering with the Clark campaign in New Hampshire. But for tonight we will be drinking this really wretched tequila we found in the kitchen, and watching the State of the Union address on CNN.

Goodnight from Washington.

11:00 am | New York City

The BWA Campaign Blog is largely offline today, and we are filing this brief update from New York, where they care less intensely about these things. In fact, we will be forced to spend tonight at a dimly-lit bar, watching a rock-and-roll show, rather than sitting on a sofa in front of CNN, eating Fritos and making unkind remarks about George Stephanapoulous and wondering why Tucker Carlson doesn't just slowly disappear, leaving behind nothing but a smirk hanging in the air, like the Cheshire Cat.

It's game day in Iowa, friends. The streets of Ottumwa and Des Moines will run scarlet with the blood of the proud and the defeated by the rising of the moon. Dawn will leave us wiser, but no less uncertain.

3:54 pm | Des Moines

A word from Meredith, our man in Iowa:

Kucinich arrives in Iowa today. Tomorrow he will introduce Ani Difranco at her concert in Des Moines. Just wanted to chime in to let Constance know she is in good company.

Quite a day for Mr. Kucinich here at the BWA Campaign Blog. One can only assume this will sharply affect his numbers.

3:28 pm | Washington DC

Just got off the phone with Meredith in Des Moines. We are both dismayed Kerry's sudden rise in the polls, not because he is something of an empty suit with the lean, clean-shaven jaws of a pike, but because it throws our current wagering for a loop, as neither of us picked him finishing better than fourth on Monday night, and now he seems to be right up top (see below).

The latest numbers from Iowa (Zogby poll)

Kerry: 23%
Dean: 22%
Gephardt: 19%
Edwards: 18%
The rest of 'em put together: 6%
Undecided: 11%

My close personal friend, the Rev. Al Sharpton, is doing the least business at 0.2%. He doesn't seem to play well in the heartland.

12:42 pm | Washington DC

We apologize for yesterday's somewhat sparse entry, dear readers. We will try to make it up to you.

The latest polls show a four-way dead heat between Dean, Gephardt, Kerry and Edwards in Iowa. What the hell happened? Where did THAT come from? Well, Dean's busy riding around on a bus, so maybe no one's showed him the numbers yet. It will all turn out in the wash.

And speaking of candidates giving Gov. Dean a run for his money, we received an impassioned plea from one of our alert readers yesterday asking for a mention of the noble-minded Dennis Kucinich, who, sadly, is trailing so far in every poll that he no longer registers on the visible light spectrum. Constance Chang from Ohio (a friend of our excellent web commentator Jenny Miller) writes:

I was at your campaign blog today and just wanted to lobby you to at least mention Kucinich in passing, or include him in name as you cover campaign 2004. Can you please throw some name attention to Dennis? He is an excellent man who can match the good reverend in wit, smarts, and integrity. Can you show him a little love, please?

Here at the Bears Will Attack Campaign Blog, we are dedicated to a hard-eyed look at the savage, poetic brutality of the modern presidential primary system, and we have little time for distractions. But Ms. Chang's plea on behalf of her short, high-minded candidate touched our black-nailed hearts. If you're out there, Mr. Kucinich, know that someone believes in you. This will not win you a forty votes in South Carolina, or even save you from a beating at the cruel hands of the Democratic National Committee's black-masked thugs, but you should sleep more soundly at night than some of these tax-fattened hyenas on the ballot. Godspeed, sir.

It will be a tricky few days here at the BWA national bureau, but we hope to have some news from our correspondents in Iowa and New Hampshire soon. The ball drops Monday in Des Moines. We'll see if Gephardt lives through the night.

11:00 pm | Washington DC

Today's update will have to be a short one, as the BWA editor will be traveling, and we, sadly, have no intern.

With the Iowa contest becoming so exciting that it's almost TOO MUCH, we take a break by presenting the results of the latest American Research Group tracking poll of the equally-exciting race in New Hampshire:

New Hampshire numbers (Associated Press)

Dean: 29%
Clark: 24%
Kerry: 15%
Undecided: 15%

The BWA Campaign Blog will return tomorrow with more exciting commentary.

1:35 pm | Des Moines

Meredith just checked in with the following comments on the now-almost-exciting Iowa contest:

Perhaps you should read today's Des Moines Register column by Iowa caucus guru David Yespsen. Admittedly I am withholding judgment on the reliability of the oft-reported Zogby tracking polls, but this quote jumped out at me...

"Dean started ads attacking his three leading opponents for voting for the Iraq war. That tells you Dean's own internal tracking poll shows this race has tightened."

Yes, I can attest that the good doctor has a fantastic stage show, but I think fears that his ground game is a bit weak could be well founded. (Notice the heavy hedging in that last sentence so I can backtrack later)

Some of us might say that Dean felt so comfortably far ahead that he started running his general election campaign nine months early, and is only now reverting to his primary strategy of pointing out that every one of the major challengers supported the Iraq war when the cards were on the table. Of course, some people will say ANYTHING.

10:32 am | Washington DC

Carol Mosely-Braun dropped out of the race this morning, casting her supporters to the uncaring winds, where they will be snatched up by Al Sharpton, who will control the black vote, forge an unstoppable delegate block and rule the Democratic convention as a mad kingmaker, driving McAuliffe's weak-hearted courtiers before him like wild animals. No, that probably won't happen. Just like everyone else, they'll just vote for Dean.

And, speaking of our man Dean, Bears Will Attack campaign correspondent Meredith Bragg reports from Iowa that, despite his best efforts, he was impressed by the future Democratic presidential candidate at last night's rally. He even sent along some photos:

Today marks the beginning of the official Bears Will Attack's "Primary Challenge!," in which Meredith and BWA chief political editor Brian Minter attempt to predict the results of various primary races. Many of the more craven and dishonest media outlets care only for "horse race" politics and meaningless devotion to numbers and polls over issues of substance that effect the lives of American voters. Bears Will Attack shares this mentality, but we are bold enough to admit it.

BWA Primary Prediction Challenge:
Round One (Iowa)

Meredith picks:
1. Dick Gephardt
2. Howard Dean
3. John Edwards

Brian picks:
1. Howard Dean
2. Dick Gephardt
3. John Edwards